Canadian spill-over?

Canadian Press has an article which is very interesting once you get past the superficial story of the Tories still leading in support among Canadian voters.

The survey of 1,026 Canadians by Decima Research was taken in the four days after the Conservative government's controversial decision last week to break an election promise and tax income trusts.

The Conservatives were still ahead nationally, with 31 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, according to the Decima poll. The Liberals were next with 28 per cent, followed by the NDP at 18, the Bloc Quebecois at 10 and the Green party at nine per cent.

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Tory support in Alberta remained sky high around 65 per cent, he said. But the Liberals were leading the Tories by an average of three percentage points in the rest of Canada, including positive margins in every region, including British Columbia.

That's a big reversal for Prime Minister Stephen Harper's party, which enjoyed a 10-point lead over the Liberals outside Alberta at the time of the Jan. 23 election.

"The Conservatives are back to a level they were in the run-up to the last election," Anderson said in commentary released to The Canadian Press with the poll.

"And in recent weeks they have seen their lead among women, urban voters, older voters and high income households dissipate."

Tory support among high-income Canadians and those over age 50 - while representing very small samples in the latest poll - spiked downward to an extent that the numbers were worth highlighting, said Anderson.

"They're neck and neck with the Liberals," he said, noting Conservatives had enjoyed a 10-point advantage in these high-voting constituencies for most of the year.

Anderson attributes at least part of the decline to fallout from the income trust decision, which cost investors - including many seniors' retirement portfolios - billions of dollars in short-term losses last week.

Nonetheless, the poll suggests the income-trust hit to the government "isn't cataclysmic."

What might be of more concern to Conservative supporters is the steady weight on public opinion of issues like the Afghanistan military mission, environmental policy and perceived ties to the weakened U.S. administration of George W. Bush.

None of the other traditional political parties has benefited, however.

"The Greens are biting from everybody," said Anderson.