McCain Watch - 8

Josh Marshall works hard to assuage my concerns about John McCain's chances in 2008.

When do people wake up to the fact that John McCain is going nowhere in the 2008 presidential race? A new ARG poll shows that over the past year, McCain's support among New Hampshire independents has dropped from 49% to 29%. And ARG President Dick Bennett says those numbers are in line with what he's seeing in other states too.

One suspects (and this may be borne out in more detailed poll data) that the two big reasons for the collapse in independent support for McCain are his status as an Iraq war dead-ender and the fact that he's spent the last three years making nice with right-wingers and right-wing policy initiaitives that independents don't like. Remember too that, despite all the kowtowing, there are big leaders on the religious right who say they'll never support his candidacy for president.

I know a lot of people are saying McCain's a hypocrite and a flipflopper. And, sure, I agree, that's a big reason why his popularity has diminished so dramatically. But isn't it time people start asking whether he'd be a strong presidential candidate or whether he can even win the nomination? His claim to fame, what supposedly makes him such a strong contender is his support among independent voters. But they don't like him anymore.